How do I figure out my tax refund?

Your refund is determined by comparing your total income tax to the amount that was withheld for federal income tax. Assuming that the amount withheld for federal income tax was greater than your income tax for the year, you will receive a refund for the difference.

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The following is an excerpt from my book Taxes Made Simple: Income Taxes Explained in 100 Pages or Less. Many taxpayers in the U.S. have come to expect a sizable refund check every tax season. To some people who don’t prepare their own tax returns, it’s a mystery how the refund is calculated. The idea is really quite simple. After calculating your taxable income, you use the information in the tax tables to determine your total income tax for the year. This amount is then compared to the amount that you actually paid throughout the year (in the form of withholdings from your paychecks). If the amount you paid is more than your tax, you are entitled to a refund for the difference. If the amount you paid is less than your tax, it’s time to get out the checkbook.

Withholding: Why It’s Done

If you work as an employee, you’re certainly aware that a large portion of your wages/salary doesn’t actually show up in your paycheck every two weeks. Instead, it gets “withheld.” The reason for this withholding is that the federal government wants to be absolutely sure that its gets its money. The government knows that many people have a tendency to spend literally all of the income they receive (if not more). As a result, the government set up the system so that it would get its share before taxpayers would have a chance to spend it. The amount of your pay that gets withheld is based upon an estimate of how much tax you’ll be responsible for paying over the course of the year. (This is why you are required to fill out Form W-4, providing your employer with some tax-related information, when you start a new job.)

Withholding: How It’s Calculated

At this point you may be thinking, “OK. Well I’m in the __% tax bracket, and it’s obvious that my employer is withholding way more than that!” You’re probably right. That’s because your employer isn’t just withholding for federal income tax. They’re also withholding for Social Security tax, Medicare tax, and (likely) state income tax. The Social Security tax is calculated as 6.2% of your earnings, and the Medicare tax is calculated as 1.45% of your earnings. Before you’ve even begun to pay your income taxes, 7.65% of your income has been withheld. Your refund is determined by comparing your total income tax to the amount that was withheld for federal income tax. Assuming that the amount withheld for federal income tax was greater than your income tax for the year, you will receive a refund for the difference. EXAMPLE: Nick’s total taxable income (after subtracting deductions) is $32,000. He is single. Using the tax table for single taxpayers, we can determine that his federal income tax is $3,641. Over the course of the year, Nick’s employer withheld a total of $8,500 from his pay, of which $4,000 went toward federal income tax. His refund will be $359 (i.e., $4,000 minus $3,641).

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What throws red flags to the IRS?

While the chances of an audit are slim, there are several reasons why your return may get flagged, triggering an IRS notice, tax experts say. Red flags may include excessive write-offs compared with income, unreported earnings, refundable tax credits and more.

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Tax season has kicked off, and the IRS has already warned filing mistakes may cause delays amid staffing shortages and a massive backlog. While electronic filing offers the best chance for faster refunds, other moves may invite IRS scrutiny, according to tax experts. The IRS closed 452,515 individual audits during its fiscal 2020, about 0.29% of the roughly 157 million individual income tax returns filed, according to the agency. "Some people play the audit lottery, meaning they'll do whatever they want, and know that the chances of getting caught are slim," said John Apisa, a CPA and partner at PKF O'Connor Davies LLP. "That's not a good philosophy to have, though."

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While there's typically a three-year statute of limitations for an IRS audit, with extensions in some cases, there's no time limit on how long the agency can pursue fraud or nonfilers. One of the first cues may be trying to claim too many credits or deductions compared with your income, tax experts say. The IRS uses software with a numeric score for each return, with higher scores more likely to spark an audit, explained certified financial planner David Silversmith, a CPA and senior manager of PKF O'Connor Davies.

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