Photo: Ron Lach

How much has Elon lost on Twitter?

In taking the company private in his $44 billion purchase of Twitter, Musk cashed in some of his Tesla stock and also saddled the social platform with $13 billion in debt, which is a massive obligation for a company the size of Twitter.

npr.org - Elon Musk says Twitter bankruptcy is possible, but is that likely? - NPR

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Enlarge this image toggle caption Jeff Chiu/AP Jeff Chiu/AP

Before Elon Musk took over Twitter, it was hardly a gangbusters business. The company is only occasionally profitable. Its userbase and advertising revenue is puny compared to social media rivals like Facebook and TikTok.

How could this be the case, and what exactly has changed?

For context, the debt equals about seven times the company's projected earnings for 2022. It's essentially a huge credit card, and the annual payment is $1 billion.

So where's the rest of the money going to come from?

"The saying ,'if you owe the bank $100, that's your problem, but if you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem' might apply here," said Wu, explaining that the investors and other lenders could take over the company if Twitter went through a bankruptcy proceeding, with Musk still serving as its chief executive. "Bankruptcy would also allow Musk to refinance the debt, which would make the company more financially stable." Since Musk closed the deal to buy Twitter, financial analysts have pointed out that he vastly overpaid. Musk's attempts to wriggle out of the deal shows that he had misgivings about the $44 billion price. The personnel turmoil, plus the fact that major advertisers like General Motors, Pfizer and United Airlines have paused advertising in the midst of the chaos has heaped additional stress onto the company. This despite Musk's assurances to companies that he would not let Twitter morph into a "free-for-all hellscape." About 90% of Twitter's revenue comes from advertising. "In addition to potential financial returns, my sense is that Musk and his co-investors are ideologically driven, that they're really driven by values," Wu said.

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Wu said it's his sense that Musk and his backers are "willing to lose money for the sake of that fight."

'Eight dollars is not cost-prohibitive for scammers'

Questions about Twitter's long-term financial viability are real. Musk has previously estimated that the company is losing $3 million a day. But that did not change what Musk sees as a core problem at the company, which is that it has just one primary way of making money: online advertising. It is an unfortunate reality for the company right now, considering it is a miserable time to be in the online advertising business. A substantial pullback in ad spending has convulsed the tech industry. Facebook owner Meta has laid off 11,000 people. Snap let go of 20% of its staff. Other ad-reliant tech companies like Spotify and Google's YouTube are feeling the squeeze. So Musk's solution is revamping a service called Twitter Blue by charging $8 a month for the once-coveted blue check. This way, Musk has argued, being "verified" on Twitter is no longer reserved for the elite and more people using the service will be authenticated. So far, the program's launch has had the exact opposite effect. A flurry of accounts impersonating star athletes like Lebron James, former President Trump and companies including Eli Lilly and Pepsi, put a spotlight on just how quickly the blue-check-for-sale option could be used to spread deception. In an effort to tame the proliferation of impersonators, Twitter appears to have paused Twitter Blue. The service is no longer available for purchase, and on its website, Twitter notes that "accounts created on or after November 9, 2022 will be unable to subscribe to Twitter Blue at this time."

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At the moment, Twitter Blue is far from the money-making initiative Musk had hoped it would be. But to Rachel Tobac, who runs Social Proof Security, a firm focused on preventing the manipulation of social media sites, if Twitter Blue is revived, the money generated from the new service is the least important thing. "Eight dollars is not cost-prohibitive for scammers," she said. "It is essential that Twitter figures out this whole official or not issue." Imagine, Tobac said, if an emergency service account with a blue check was opened by an impersonator and began dispending harmful advice about, say, where to seek shelter during a natural disaster. Tobac also fears disinformation agents paying $8 to sow confusion and discord in connection with an election — something fresh on her mind, as the country awaits the final outcome of a number of key midterm election races. "Right now, we have people making jokes, impersonating the president, impersonating Nintendo and Elon Musk is laughing at those jokes because he thinks they're funny right now," she said. "What's not going to be funny is someone impersonating an election official and meddling and causing interference within the election results."

npr.org - Elon Musk says Twitter bankruptcy is possible, but is that likely? - NPR

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